The Changing Nature of Work: 30 signals to consider for a sustainable future

SIGNAL 7. Changing demographics

Demographic changes are among the fundamental underlying forces that will shape future jobs and skills. While technological innovations will play a critical role in shaping jobs, we cannot ignore global demographic trends as well as changes in the nature of work that we are already facing at global, regional and national levels

A report by the European Commission summarizes the following main drivers of demographic change in the region:

• Longer life expectancy
• Fewer births
• An ageing population
• Smaller households
• Increasing mobility
• Changing population size.

Demographic changes largely affect the supply side of the workforce market. As the traditional labour supply channels shrink, job markets and economies can resort to two broad groups of compensating measures: (i) creating larger and more inclusive labour markets mobilizing all additional potential sources; and (ii) boosting productivity through structural economic reforms and upgrading skills.

More inclusive policies and practices for women, older workers, people with disabilities, immigrants and other marginalized groups should be implemented. While certain rules might be enforced by 21 .The Changing Nature of Work governments as regulatory measures, individual organizations will take the initiative for earlier or more comprehensive action. Demographic pressures will require boosts in productivity. Aligned with technological advances, they will require structural reforms and adaptation to new skills paradigm. Industries, especially labour-intensive ones, will more widely and deeply embrace technological advances, thus changing the nature of work and the requirement for the workforce. Concurrently, the emergence of the market for new professions and skills will require government policies to be proactive and agile, curricula to be dynamic, and work models to be more flexible.

The effects of demographic changes on the job markets will have different impacts depending on the intensity of technological changes. Within Europe and Central Asia, there may be different effects depending on the countries and their demographic trends, the direction of migration flows, and other country-specific features.

In addition, the changes in the cultural paradigm induced by the replacement of generations of workers will also be critical. In contrast to the ‘hard’ demographic parameters that affect the supply-demand balance, ‘soft’ changes, such as shifting preferences of various occupations and work models, or our understanding of the perception of work in general, will determine the nature and character of these changes at the micro level.

Check out the next signal, #8: Professions of the future

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The Changing Nature of Work: 30 signals to consider for a sustainable future

Work helps sustain livelihoods and largely determines the quality of life. Its changing nature is at the frontier of development. This report is the result of a broad horizon scanning by six UNDP Accelerator Labs across Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.  They reveal 30 signals that shape the “where, who, how, and why” of the changing nature of work. From the impact of COVID-19 on the workforce to new work models and entrepreneurial ecosystems, the authors explore opportunities and threats, as well as solutions from local contexts that can be scaled up into positive answers to the challenges people around the world are facing.  Download the full report here.