What’s changed since Q1 2022?
• Growth: Official estimate for real GDP growth in 2022 is 6.6%, while UNDP projects 3.0% and IMF 3.8%.
• Inflation: Worsening of inflation to 37.2% in May 2022 and 34% in June 2022 compared to 33.6% in February 2022. Inflations remains high with a slight deceleration reported in June 2022, which may not suggest an emerging trend.
• Fiscal Out-turns 2022: The fiscal deficit/GDP is widening and is estimated at 5.1% for FY2022
• Fiscal Plan 2023: The deficit in FY2023 is budgeted to fall to 3.4% of GDP, due to tighter expenditure control.
• Monetary aggregates: Reserve money is projected to grow at 32% in FY2022.
• Foreign exchange: Foreign exchange reserves in May 2022 are at $US 1.5 billion and have been dwindling.
• Current account balance: The current account deficit is projected at 5.3% of GDP in FY2022.
• BoP: Overall BOP deficit in FY2022 is estimated at $US 2 billion, requiring significant external financing support.