LocationsTheme 7
“OPECs” for
everything
Developing countries are forming new alliances to demand a fairer deal for their natural resources and protect the global commons of nature. Whether by selling their resources or conserving them, these are coalitions designed to accrue maximum value to their members of the resources they own.
Signals
The green transition is set to drive hugely increased demand [97] for the critical minerals used in clean energy technologies, like lithium, nickel and cobalt. Demand for lithium, for example, used in electric vehicles and batteries, is expected to grow at least thirteenfold [98] by 2040. Given these growing opportunities, lithium producers Bolivia, Argentina and Chile are considering establishing something like an “OPEC for lithium" [99], while Indonesia is looking at [100] a similar structure for nickel, cobalt and manganese.
Meanwhile, Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have signed a partnership to cooperate on rainforest preservation [101], saying countries should be paid to maintain forests as carbon sinks. Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, who produce two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, boycotted [102] the 2022 meeting of the World Cocoa Foundation, demanding fairer cocoa prices for farmers.
New alliances for global commons are emerging elsewhere, too. 27 companies committed to using water sustainably have formed a Water Resilience Coalition [103], while the Ocean Rights Alliance [104] launched at COP27 brings companies together around ocean conservation.
Trends
Developing countries assert themselves
Race for scarce resources
New alliances for the global commons
Illustrative Signals
Demand for lithium used in electric vehicles and batteries expected to grow at least thirteenfold by 2040
Argentina, Bolivia and Chile consider “OPEC for lithium”. Indonesia considers similar structure for nickel, cobalt and manganese
Brazil, Indonesia and DRC sign rainforest preservation alliance
Ocean Rights Alliance brings companies together around ocean conservation
So what for development
Formation of new negotiating blocs around scarce resources critical to the green transition is shaping a more fluid, multipolar landscape. With lithium resources concentrated in a few countries, such new alliances could be disruptive. How might these tensions play out, including among private sector players?
Who owns, controls and benefits from extracting oil, gas, minerals and forests can have significant implications for inequality and climate change. Nickel mining is causing social and environmental damage in Indonesia [105], the world’s largest nickel producer. Given the high social and environmental costs of extraction, and associated geopolitical tensions, the Paris Peace Forum initiative on governance of critical minerals [106] aims to foster collaboration around responsible production and shared benefits. Will new alliances converge around such principles?
As new blocs form to promote their economic interests and strengthen their negotiating power, the question of ownership of resources will be central. 50 million indigenous people live in or depend on tropical rainforests [107].
A study of over 5,000 mining projects showed over 54% were located on or near indigenous peoples’ lands [108]. In conserving or managing those resources, how will those who live there be consulted, and the benefits of sustainable management shared?
Could the challenge of exploiting scarce minerals, and growing awareness of the environmental costs, incentivize research and exploration of alternatives, like sodium-ion batteries [109]?
Imagining the future
What might our world look like in 2040?
Fictional snippets from a possible future!
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