In the last four decades, countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean region have made important advances in consolidating democratic institutions. Electoral democracy, an essential, though not unique, pillar of a democratic state, was taken for granted throughout the region. The arrival of COVID-19 has posed yet a new test to the strength of these democratic pillars. Four fundamental instruments of democratic citizen engagement are precisely elections, along with free and effective political organization, peaceful social mobilization, and open, high quality, public deliberation. All of them have been affected in the context of a pandemic where in-person interactions pose a public health risk. This #GraphForThought focuses on the first of these pillars, elections, and explores how voter turnout has changed during COVID-19 in the region—and reflects on what we can learn from this past year’s experience to ensure that upcoming elections in 2021 (and beyond) remain free and fair under the added pressures of the pandemic.

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA)’s overview of COVID-19’s impact on elections, at least 18 countries in LAC held elections (national or subnational) during COVID-19—including presidential elections in Bolivia, Dominican Republic and, most recently, Ecuador. In some cases, these elections had to be postponed (at least once) and special safety measures had to be introduced. While each country adopted its own approach to holding safe elections during COVID-19, typical measures included mask wearing, social distancing, temperature checks, sanitizing, and single use of voting pencils. Some countries also increased the number of polling stations, extended voting hours, offered mobile polling stations, or made accommodations for advance voting or priority voting for certain at-risk groups.

However, in some countries health measures such as quarantine requirements for those who had tested positive for the virus or those who had recently traveled resulted in the disenfranchisement of quarantined voters in instances where special voting arrangements were not put in place. Similarly, in some countries health measures such as bans on public transportation made access to polling stations increasingly difficult for people living in more remote areas. While COVID-19 may have presented new barriers to voting (i.e. mobility, safety, etc.) it may have also heightened people’s sense of urgency in voting (as citizens look to leaders to solve pandemic-related crises). Moreover, in many countries within the LAC region, this is taking shape against a pre-existing backdrop of growing political polarization.

Drawing on IDEA’s voter turnout database (and Ecuador’s National Electoral Council for results from its February 7^th first round presidential election) we can see how this new context has affected people’s voting behavior in the region thus far.

The figure below shows trends in voter turnout (the total number of votes cast, valid or invalid, as a share of the number of names on the voters' register) for 14 parliamentary or presidential elections that took place in the region during COVID-19. For each country, the grey bars show historical voter turnout rates (for elections taking place between 1990-2019), with the average rate depicted by the dotted line. The colored bar shows the voter turnout rate in 2020/21 (in blue if voter turnout increased compared to the historical average, and in pink if it decreased). The * symbol indicates that voting is compulsory.