We live in unprecedented times. 

We are making significant leaps in new technologies and their applications. However, a harsh reality continues to stare us in the face. In July 2024, extreme heat broke global records, and the world appears to be on track to cross the 1.5°C threshold within 10 years. Even more alarmingly, if warming reaches 3°C we could see accelerated sea level rise within the next few centuries, resulting in extensive coastal loss and damage and the loss of livelihoods and assets for coastal communities around the world.

At the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga in August 2024, the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, called it a “crazy situation: rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity’s making. A crisis that will soon swell to an almost unimaginable scale, with no lifeboat to take us back to safety.”

Our big bet on innovation and futures thinking

Business as usual will no longer cut it. To get new and different outcomes, we need to invest in new and different ways of doing development. Development needs to change often and change for good and that means improving our ability to anticipate, adapt and act. We can no longer afford to be surprised by the future. 

Since 2022, UNDP Pacific has been running the Anticipatory Governance Sandbox, building our muscle for systemic and future thinking. This approach has allowed us to find the right intelligence and apply it to our development programming and partnerships. Importantly, it has also led us to new governance models where planning, strategy and design can be more inclusive, contextually relevant and culturally sensitive. 

We know that we cannot walk this path alone. We are joined by the Council of Regional Organizations of the Pacific (CROP) families – the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS), the Pacific Community (SPC) and other international organizations who are walking alongside us to mainstream and integrate future-readiness in doing core development.  

Paradigm shift for development 

Learning from our global counterparts, we aim to mainstream foresight across our work and establish pillars of excellence in the Pacific. This is where our partnership with PIFS has been pivotal. 

Alongside the Forum Secretariat, we are developing novel governance structures and architecture conducive to anticipatory development action. This includes using future signals, drivers and scenarios to guide decision making so that our current strategies are robust in the long run and continue to cover ground towards our collective goals as one Blue Pacific Continent. 

Investing in the Pacific’s human capital is crucial for this transformation. Our approach is focused on readying a new generation of public service professionals who can simultaneously consider the pressure of the present, with the needs of the future. 

We are not the first to be doing this. Here, we are guided by the tremendous work done by our partners - Singapore, Finland, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, among others. At the same time, we recognize that simply adapting outside models and making them fit-for-purpose will not suffice. We need to listen with deep humility to acknowledge the wisdom of traditional models, culture and practices from the Pacific and build on those for genuine, locally-led development.

With the Pacific, for the Pacific, by the Pacific

Our learnings from over the last few years have also clearly demonstrated this. We can no longer reap compounded dividends in the future if we discount the past. Grounding our practice in traditional knowledge, culture and practice is critical for creating sustainable pathways for the future. 

This means focusing on intergenerational dialogue and creating platforms where young people can become active national and global citizens. It also means embracing indigenous concepts and methods to guide development programming.

Particularly, it means continuous learning and reflection on what works. With digital sovereignty, climate grief, and multispecies justice emerging as burgeoning trends, we need to investigate how this impacts our ongoing work and what new opportunities and obstacles need our attention.

It also means instilling hope. Our outlook on the future influences the choices we make. The Pacific is young. In Fiji, more than 60 percent of the population is under 35; in the Solomon Islands it's almost 75 percent. They are the future leaders, for the unique value young people bring cannot be underestimated: technological savvy, fresh perspectives on persistent issues, and a vested interest in long-term outcomes. They are also experts in their lived experience and are continually demonstrating commitment to a new and resilient Pacific across sectors. There is a need to empower collective public imagination to go beyond the status quo and piecemeal reform. This is an investment into pragmatic optimism and collective agency of the region. 

This month, global leaders will congregate for the Summit of the Future, focusing on the short and medium-term outlook for multilateralism, and renewing our commitment to the future. As UNDP, we continue to be integrators and conveners holding and nurturing spaces for new development thinking. And while there are several pressing issues that do require our urgent attention, by investing in Pacific Futures, we are making sure that our current interventions not only address our urgent needs, but also ensure that we do not carry the same issues into the future.