In Central Asia, disaster risks are escalating. 

Over the past 30 years, 140 natural hazards have affected over 10 million people and caused US$3.7 billion in damages. These disasters often have transboundary impacts, threatening an additional 40 million people. 

The projected climate change will worsen the situation - increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, further challenging resilience-building efforts and exacerbating vulnerabilities in the affected communities.

There is an urgent need for comprehensive risk reduction strategies. Early warning systems (EWS) provide relevant, timely information to protect lives and communities, minimize damages and losses, and support long-term sustainability. If activated 24 hours before an event, an effective early warning can reduce damage by 30 percent, offering a ten-fold return on investments. 

Despite their crucial benefits, one-third of the global population lacks timely and effective EWS coverage. An $800 million investment in developing countries could prevent annual losses of $3-16 billion. There has been progress in investing in EWS systems, but there are gaps, including a lack of community-based systems, ineffective communication and the failure to tailor systems to local contexts.

The essentials of the early warning systems stakeholders 

An early warning system value chain is a chain of expertise and information sources linked together to generate and share information. This ensures effective responses to potential threats and allows information to flow in both directions. Stakeholders play a pivotal role in the chain, working together to bolster resilience, ensure swift responses and safeguard communities from disasters. 

UNDP and UNDRR recently conducted a mapping exercise of early warning system stakeholders across Central Asia to helps support a transformational shift of how systems are perceived and integrated into broader resilience-building efforts. We identifed all thos along the chain (from local to international, state to private sector, researcher/academia to NGOs, etc.), assessed their influence and strategized ways to build trust and cooperation. 

What challenges did we find? Many disaster risk management systems are still reactive, not proactive. Early warning processes are often fragmented, and poorly integrated into countries’ development strategies and policies for risk-informed decision-making. There is a lack of anticipation of new and emerging risks, insufficient monitoring and forecasting, and limited financial and technological support. Early warning communication and dissemination is often unclear, especially for the most vulnerable. Impact-based forecasting is still in the early stages, and there is insufficient involvement from the private sector and media. 

Addressing these issues is crucial for more effective disaster response and resilience. But there are still many successful examples of advancing the early warning systems in the region, both on national and cross-border levels:

• Tajikistan is the inaugural country in Central Asia to roll out the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) Initiative. A national road map is being developed to enhance and expand the country’s early warning system.
• The Center for Emergency Situations and Disaster Risk Reduction is leading regional efforts to develop an integrated early warning system for disaster threats in Central Asia. This system will integrate the national systems of the five countries to provide warning and alerts for earthquakes and other disasters. Additionally, the emergency authorities from these countries have appealed to the UN Secretary-General to support the regional system and reaffirm their commitment to EW4ALL initiative.
•  Uzbekistan is modernizing its multi-hazard early warning system in the Ferghana Valley, introducing impact-based forecasting and forecast-based financing. By shifting from reactive to proactive warnings, the system will deliver actionable weather forecasts to users, setting a new standard for effective early warning systems and disaster risk management.
• The Climate Change and Resilience in Central Asia project is boosting stability and climate resilience in the Ferghana Valley across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It plans to establish community-based early warning systems and improve communication with all community members. Its  Second High-Level Dialogue on Climate Change and Resilience in Central Asia emphasized the importance of early warning systems and fostering regional cooperation and partnerships.

• The Central Asian Flood Early Warning System is a virtual platform for data exchange and weather forecasting to manage cross-border weather, climate and water risks. It helps decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors, promotes regional cooperation and supports climate adaptation efforts.