Interest is growing around how climate change may drive population movement and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is in the eye of the storm. The World Bank estimates that by 2050 up to 17 million people may be internally displaced in Mexico and Central America alone. According to the IPCC, migration and displacement associated with climatic hazards is becoming more frequent across the region and expected to increase. However, while these warnings underline the cross-cutting impact that climate change will have on LAC’s human development, policy applications are currently limited - in part because we lack a detailed understanding of which areas and which populations will be most affected.

To begin closing this gap, the UNDP Regional Hub for Latin America and the Caribbean commissioned baseline research to assess how institutions might forecast climate mobility, how they could integrate this into adaptation planning, and how they are currently responding to a growing challenge. Here are three headline conclusions:

First, several Latin American and Caribbean governments are integrating human mobility into their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Strategies (NAPs).  Twelve countries in the region have currently produced NAPs, and the majority mention climate mobility and concrete recommendations. Proposed adaptive responses include improvements in data collection and forecasting; support for adequate housing; employment and skills-development in areas of expulsion and reception; and investment in planned relocation. The picture with NDCs is different. Only 11 out of the region’s 33 NDCs mention human mobility, and in general terms. This shows comparatively high awareness of climate mobility, but also a need for stronger consideration of the issue. 

Second, a smaller set of countries are testing approaches to address climate mobility, acknowledging migratory populations as people at risk. For example, Colombia is on the cusp of passing the world’s first “climate mobility” law, proposing a unified registry of climate displacement, and assigning responsibilities for specific ministries and agencies. Chile and Peru are considering laws and in 2021, Antigua and Barbuda called for regional agreements and frameworks to address climate mobility. In 2022, Argentina started providing three-year humanitarian visas to climate-displaced people from Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico. And countries ranging from Barbados and Cuba to Brazil, Panama and Chile are exploring how to relocate at-risk populations, from areas such as coastlines, drought and flood-prone regions.

Thirdly, our research suggests a basic framework to help partners assess potential hotspots for climate mobility. Anticipating where displacement, migration, and relocation are likely to occur and which populations will be affected is a vital part of planning. However, the reality is that the drivers of climate mobility are highly complex, and the quality and coverage of data is uneven. Whilst sophisticated tools are under development that might better guide policy, these are not yet ready for use. In the meantime, decision-makers can get ahead of the curve by better assessing risks, identifying hotspots and setting prioritiesthrough a basic framework that looks at at three main factors: climate shocks and stresses, socio-economic drivers and structural vulnerabilities. 

Some entry points for development and policy makers offered in the research include: 

• Strengthening data collection, management and analysis capabilities of public authorities to monitor multiple categories of climate mobility.
• Reinforcing policy coordination and coherence to prepare new NDCs and NAPs so they better respond to all stages of climate mobility.
• Integrating planning for internal climate mobility into adaptation strategies for vulnerable people before, during and after they move and, eventually, if they stay-in-place.
• Identifying where additional resources will be needed to tackle climate mobility that cannot be found in “traditional” climate strategies.
• Advocating for resilience for people at risk of climate mobility by formalizing at-risk settlements, building social housing and regularising land tenure.
• Supporting climate mobility governance and facilitate knowledge sharing.

Responding to climate mobility means finding pragmatic solutions that consider the short and long term and avoids framing the movement of people solely as a problem, rather than a positive adaptive response. The challenges are imposing, but governments in LAC are already grappling with them and UNDP, together with partners, can provide critical support. 

*The research and the framework are summarised in a brief and three technical notes: a first one that sets out a framework for mapping climate-mobility hotspots; a second reviewing human mobility in LAC climate policies; and a third drawing lessons from Colombia.