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Regulating the unknown
Technology holds extraordinary potential for development. But regulation is not keeping up with the pace of change. Unless the world gets a handle on regulation, new or rapidly growing technologies (especially where they cross borders, like geoengineering, seabed mining or the metaverse) could escape control, with unknown and potentially malign consequences.
Signals
At least 50 countries are already using weather-modifying technology [78], from China (with the world’s largest programme [79], covering some 50% of its land area) to cloud seeding technology in the Gulf [80] .Many scientists are sceptical, however, about the technical success of weather modification (and some note its potential as a source of tension[81]).
Solar geoengineering, like spraying chemicals into the atmosphere [82] to deflect solar radiation, or manufacturing in outer space thin-film structures known as space bubbles [83], is also controversial. Some researchers have called for a global ban on sun-dimming technologies [84], saying we don’t know how it could alter Earth’s atmosphere. Others point to the challenges of governance, with nations unlikely to agree on whether planet-altering tech should be used.
As more companies and people move into the metaverse, its regulation (or lack of it) is getting attention. Concerns range from sexual abuse of avatars [85], hate speech [86] and sexual assault, to financial crime [87], to the potential for real-life abuse of children [88]. The Republic of Korea has drafted ethical principles [89] for the metaverse.
Chile (prompted by its own Future Challenges Commission) is pioneering the protection of neurorights [90], in anticipation of the continued rapid development of neurotechnology.
Existing regulatory authorities may expand into new areas as technology advances. For example, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) authorized the first large scale metals mining [91] from the Pacific seabed – to criticism [92] from environmentalists arguing its impact on marine ecosystems was insufficiently understood and the ISA’s decisions were not transparent.
Trends
Boom in breakthrough tech
Increased use of weather-modifying tech
Growth in metaverse users
Illustrative Signals
50+ countries are already using weather-modifying technology
Researchers call for a global ban on sun-dimming technologies
International Seabed Authority greenlit first large-scale metals mining from the Pacific seabed
Reports of avatar abuse, hate speech, sexual assault and financial crime in the metaverse
So what for development
Can we govern at the speed with which these technologies change? And who should regulate what? – especially of technologies whose planetary impacts are as yet unknown, like solar geoengineering.
Where the implications of these technologies cross borders, international cooperation is vital, not just to understand the consequences but also to leverage shared interests. It must also protect the interests of countries and people who are not even part of the debate. The ISA’s decisions on metals mining in the Pacific, for example, may set precedents for exploitation of the ocean floor in other regions. Can the current multilateral system accommodate truly inclusive decision-making?
In an increasingly interconnected world, where should these decisions be made? Legislative proposals [93] to force companies to address the safety of children in the metaverse are under discussion in the EU.
Cities are sometimes taking the lead in regulation and policymaking [94] in rapidly advancing areas like AI or data privacy, where state or global governance, or companies’ own ethical frameworks, seem inadequate.
Could older conventions serve as useful regulation mechanisms? It’s been suggested that the best mechanism for policing weather modification [95], for example, is the ENMOD Convention of 1978, ratified by 78 countries, including Russia, the US, China and Germany.
Imagining the future
What might our world look like in 2040?
Fictional snippets from a possible future!
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