LocationsImmersive scenarios to transform meetings and shape future governance
Using generative AI for crisis foresight
November 20, 2024
Photo: UNDP Eurasia / generated by openAI
What if the next time you discuss a complex future and its potential crises, it could be transformed from a typical meeting into an immersive experience? That’s exactly what we did at a recent strategy meeting of UNDP's Crisis Bureau and Bureau for Policy and Programme Support thanks to the Eurasia innovation team’s brilliant work on the matter.
In an environment where workshops and meetings can often feel monotonous, we aimed to break the mold. By using AI-generated videos, we brought our discussion to life, reflecting the realities of developing nations and immersing participants in the critical issues affecting our region. In today's rapidly changing world, the ability to anticipate and prepare for potential crises is more crucial than ever. Crisis foresight involves identifying and analyzing possible future crises to develop strategies that can mitigate their impact. This proactive approach, highlighted multiple times in the pact for the future, is essential for effective governance and sustainable development in Europe and Central Asia and the rest of the world.
This approach not only captured attention but also sparked deeper engagement and thought-provoking conversations.
Visualization of the consequences of pollution in Joraland.
Our idea behind creating AI-generated videos was to provide a vivid, immersive experience that would engage viewers and stimulate active participation by sharing their reflections on the challenges and opportunities in developing countries. We presented fictional yet relatable scenarios to gather the participants of the meeting around a common view and create a sense of urgency and importance around UNDP's strategic priorities and initiatives.
Process and collaboration
The scenario writing process was a collaborative effort involving the Governance and Peacebuilding Team and the Innovation Team of the UNDP Istanbul Regional Hub. Our team focused on drafting detailed scenarios and description of fictional case studies, which served as basis for visualising these scenarios using AI-powered tools. We ensured that each scenario included a balanced mix of positive trends, such as advanced digitalization, enhanced access to information and education, transforming labour markets, shifting gender norms, alongside negative ones like increasing information pollution, environmental degradation, and conflicts over scarce resources. The process was iterative, with continuous feedback and refinement, ensuring that the scenarios were both realistic and impactful.
Development of scenarios
Throughout the process, we explored three diverse scenarios that illustrate the complex interplay between governance, technology, and environmental challenges. "Altistan" represents a nation overcoming historical turmoil to achieve democratic maturity yet facing ongoing challenges with digital security and environmental sustainability; "Zortania" is a case of an authoritarian regime leveraging advanced technology for control, while civil society strives to operate under severe restrictions; "Joraland" portrays a resource-rich country grappling with pollution, social unrest, and the delicate balance between economic development and environmental conservation.
Illustration of extreme prediction possibilities in Zortania.
Challenges and Solutions
One of our main challenges was balancing optimism and pessimism in our scenarios to ensure they were realistic but still thought-provoking. Designing inputs for AI tools required nuanced thinking, as AI often projected a biased view, either overly dark or bright. Through continuous refinement and feedback from experts in the team, we developed scenarios that captured the complexities of the issues. It was also difficult to agree on what makes a scenario plausible and to establish a consistent methodology, given the diverse perspectives from team members on possible futures. To streamline the process, we assigned a focal point for each country/scenario that could use AI tools to create the narrative following pre-determined factors such as economic growth, political stability, impact of climate change, etc.
Example of balanced scenario for Altistan with democracy improvement and climate deterioration.
Impact and feedback
During the session, the AI-generated videos triggered constructive discussions between the participants around UNDP's strategic priorities and served as catalysts for planning and decision-making. The possibility to visualise the potential outcomes of various developmental trends enriched their understanding and engagement. Some AI-produced biases like the lack of women and ethnic representation in the video, were also identified and discussed. These videos can also help as a kickoff to certain topics, after breaks or on the last day of a workshop, drawing everyone’s attention back to the topic.
Future implications
Writing scenarios for AI-generated videos highlighted how our creative, research-based approaches can enhance development work. We demonstrated AI's potential to improve understanding, boost engagement, and strengthen strategic planning in addressing complex issues facing our partner governments. The quality of the AI-generated videos is also improving at a very fast pace.
Looking ahead, we believe AI-generated videos and scenarios can play a key role in any workshop or meeting, not just those within UNDP. They have the power to stimulate greater interest and provoke deeper discussions around major developmental challenges. These tools can be instrumental in highlighting the urgency of our goals and the importance of our immediate next steps, which can be crucial in meetings with external stakeholders.
This blog was produced with contributions from Andreas Pawelke, Dani and Piotr Sachek, whose insights and efforts have greatly enriched the content.
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